Polls Speak for Themselves：Advancing Opposition Integration from Bottom Up
United Daily News, September 27, 2023
According to the presidential election poll released on September 27 by the United Daily News, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential candidate William Lai is the frontrunner, with challengers Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je and Kuomintang (KMT) candidate Hou Yu-ih trailing and the two garnering similar levels of support. Independent candidate Terry Gou ranks at the bottom. This poll aligns with the recent trends in polls published by other media outlets and institutions. Hou and Ko's levels of support are closely intertwined. Lai stands a great chance of winning the presidency next year, as long as he is able to solidify the DPP's base of around 30 to 40 percent.
Imported Egg Controversy Opportunity to Gauge Public Sentiment
The DPP has performed poorly in governance. During the three-year pandemic, suspicions surrounding opaque practices in the procurement of vaccines and epidemic prevention materials remain unresolved. Lavish spending policies have led to excessive debt, to the point that even the National Audit Office finds it concerning. Earlier this year, when facing an egg shortage, no effective solutions were proposed to improve the stagnant production and distribution. Instead, eggs were imported as a quick fix. As a result, a trading company with a capital of NT$500,000 (about US$15,475) imported a large quantity of eggs from Brazil, raising suspicions of foul play. Millions of imported eggs had to be destroyed due to expiration, which was seen as a waste of public funds. The egg scandal and the disappearance of millions of imported eggs have fueled the public's discontent to its peak.
According to the latest poll by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation (TPOF), the DPP's support has declined by 6.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. Chairman You Ying-lung of the TPOF analyzed that this decline is related to the imported egg scandal. Clearly, the resentment over imported eggs has not subsided with the resignation of Minister of Agriculture Chen Chi-chung. People now have to be cautious about buying eggs that are expired or falsely labeled as Taiwanese eggs when they are actually imports and liquid eggs that underwent substantial transformation using imported eggs. How can one not be angry about this way of life?
Unwilling to Be Deputy; Biggest Challenge to Opposition Cooperation
"Using votes to oust an underperforming government is a democratic norm. A United Daily News poll shows that nearly half of the population wishes to remove the DPP from power. However, the major opposition parties, the KMT and the TPP, have failed to win over the majority of the people individually. In this divided situation, it is impossible to remove the ruling DPP, causing great concern for the majority of the people. However, the United Daily News poll also indicates that if the KMT and the TPP, who each have around 20 percent support, can cooperate, their collaboration can still surpass Lai by 8 percentage points. And if Terry Gou does not run, the cooperation between the blue and white camps could win over Lai by an impressive 15 percentage points.
The public looks forward to seeing a collaboration between the opposition, as evident from the United Daily News poll. However, the question remains: How should the blue and white camps collaborate and coordinate? With both parties emphasizing their own party's autonomy, this becomes a challenging task, especially when both the KMT and the TPP have stated that each does not intend to play a subordinate role. Effectively implementing cooperation and coordination between the blue and white camps presents a certain level of challenge.
Endeavor to Unseat DPP: Delicate Balance Among Hou, Ko, and Gou
Recently, Chairman Jaw Shaw-kong of the Chinese Broadcasting Corporation held a private meeting with former Kaohsiung Mayor Han Kuo-yu and others, showing a strong desire to utilize public sentiment to push for blue-white integration from the grassroots. According to Jaw, the KMT holds 14 incumbent county and city mayors and 38 legislators, and they should prioritize the “Hou-Ko alliance.” He also suggested that the KMT should list Han Kuo-yu as the top candidate for the proportional representation seats in the Legislative Yuan to boost support. Jaw emphasized that these decisions were made at the top levels in the past, but now it's time for grassroots voices to be heard, demonstrating a proactive approach to promote blue-white integration.
As public resentment over imported eggs continues to rise, regardless of whether it will become a weak point for the DPP, the mainstream opinion still desires opposition cooperation to unseat the DPP. Whether the transfer of political power can be achieved depends on the decisions made by Hou, Ko, and Gou.